Overview
- Nvidia reports after the close on Wednesday, with Wall Street looking for roughly $65.7–$66.1 billion in Q4 revenue and about $1.52–$1.54 in adjusted EPS, and for Q1 guidance around $72–$72.7 billion.
- Derivatives markets point to a ±6% post-earnings move, prediction markets assign roughly a 95% chance of a beat, and Nvidia’s 7%–8% index weight could sway broader benchmarks.
- Nvidia’s forward P/E has compressed to the mid‑20s near multi‑year lows even as estimates surge, with the stock up only about 2% this year after big gains in 2025.
- Hyperscaler capex projections of approximately $630–$700 billion for 2026 underpin demand, though in‑house chips from Google (TPU), Amazon (Trainium) and Meta (MTIA) plus AMD’s advances are key competitive risks.
- Supply remains a watch item with tight TSMC 3‑nanometer capacity and export licensing for China potentially limiting upside, and the call will be the first to outline how the roughly $20 billion Groq asset deal strengthens Nvidia’s inference roadmap.