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Nvidia Earnings Land Today in Marketwide Test for the AI Trade

The chipmaker’s report will signal whether hyperscalers’ massive AI spending is translating into durable growth.

Overview

  • Results are due after the closing bell, with Wall Street expecting roughly $66 billion in quarterly revenue and about $1.53 in adjusted EPS, implying profit growth of more than 60% year over year.
  • Big Tech’s 2026 AI capital budgets near $630–$650 billion underpin demand, while options markets imply roughly a 5% to 5.6% next‑day move in Nvidia shares.
  • Investors will scrutinize guidance and gross margins, with estimates near 75% as higher memory and other input costs raise questions about profitability.
  • Competitive and customer in‑house chip efforts remain key risks, with Google’s TPUs and AMD’s planned AI servers contrasted against Nvidia’s Groq licensing move and an expanded multiyear Meta supply deal that includes Blackwell, Rubin and Grace CPU deployments.
  • U.S. stocks rose ahead of the release, but traders want clarity on export‑limited China sales and tariff uncertainty that could affect future demand and pricing.