Overview
- The Resolve Political Monitor, polled in mid-June and mid-July, found 48 percent of respondents would back non-major parties with One Nation on about 25 percent, Labor at 29 percent and the Coalition at 23 percent.
- The survey was taken either side of the state’s no-frills pre-election budget and the NSW Independent Commission Against Corruption announcement into an alleged donation scheme, events that pollsters say have damaged trust in major parties.
- The ICAC headlines led to the resignation of upper-house Liberal MP Damien Tudehope and produced a string of negative stories that commentators say depressed both parties’ primary votes.
- Premier Chris Minns remains the preferred premier at roughly 36 percent compared with Kellie Sloane’s 16 percent, showing leader likeability has not prevented voters abandoning party brands.
- One Nation’s NSW strength is concentrated among older, lower-income and regional voters, a pattern that could threaten National Party seats and force a right‑side contest between One Nation and the Coalition going into March 2027.