Overview
- The projected growth rate exceeds the recent 10-year non-pandemic average of 3.6%.
- The outlook covers core retail only, excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants, and relies on a new model built with Oxford Economics.
- NRF says the Iran war’s impact on spending is too uncertain to include, notes oil prices are up nearly 50% with gasoline rising, and says the forecast could be revised.
- Fresh inflation pressures are in focus after U.S. wholesale prices rose 3.4% in February, led in part by food, according to the Labor Department.
- Economists expect some labor softening with unemployment staying below 4.5%, and they see higher-income households driving most spending gains.