Overview
- The National Retail Federation issued its forecast on Thursday projecting November–December retail sales will rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion using models that exclude automobile, gasoline, and restaurant sales.
- A Deloitte survey of about 4,000 consumers found average household holiday budgets could climb about 4% to $1,654 with gains concentrated among Gen Z and millennial shoppers.
- NRF economists describe a K-shaped pattern in which higher-income households account for a disproportionate share of spending, with the top 10% of buyers representing as much as 70% of sales in some categories.
- Retailers face rising freight and fuel costs plus sharper electronics price gains tied to AI chip demand—BEA estimates show some electronics have risen more than 12%—and NRF says competition may push merchants to absorb some of those costs rather than fully pass them to shoppers.
- The federation expects businesses to hire roughly 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers this year while shopper use of AI tools grows, a shift that could change how products are discovered, stocked, and promoted during the holidays.