North and Central Texas Storms Strengthen With Localized Severe and Flash-Flood Risks

Overview

• SPC reports a band of thunderstorms from south‑central into north Texas moving east as an upper shortwave approaches, with earlier outflow undercutting keeping convection relatively disorganized.
• An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging wind persists into early afternoon, with SPC placing the probability of watch issuance near 20 percent.
• MLCAPE is edging into the 500–1000 J/kg range while effective bulk shear of roughly 50–75 kt supports potential for isolated supercells or brief bowing segments.
• WPC expects the convection to consolidate into a slowly progressive line, with training segments capable of hourly rain near 2 inches and local totals up to 4 inches across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.
• SPC discussions highlight most probable peak gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to about 1.25 inches, with urban and low‑lying areas most susceptible to flash‑flood impacts.