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Non‑College Young Workers Reach Two‑Decade Low in Unemployment

Labor shortages in skilled trades, a rising supply of college graduates and AI taking entry‑level tasks are shifting job demand toward in-person and manual roles.

A job fair in Dallas in July.
An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows Workers ages 22 to 34 without college degrees are enjoying some of the lowest unemployment rates seen in two decades, Image 2 shows Meanwhile, degree-holders face one of the toughest stretches on record, Image 3 shows Chief economist Gad Levanon points to a growing oversupply of bachelor’s degree holders combined with a shrinking pool of skilled tradespeople as older workers retire and immigration slows

Overview

  • A Burning Glass Institute analysis using data through July shows unemployment for U.S. workers ages 22–34 without a college degree is near its lowest level in about 20 years.
  • The August jobs report added 162,000 positions and showed 59,000 hires in food services and drinking places, reinforcing gains concentrated in in-person service and manual-occupation hiring.
  • Analysts say the shift reflects supply-and-demand changes: many older trades workers have retired, immigration has slowed the replacement pool for skilled manual roles, and the share of people with bachelor’s degrees has grown.
  • Despite the recent reversal, prime-age workers with bachelor’s degrees still had lower raw unemployment for the year through July (2.7%) than those with some college (3.6%) or only a high-school diploma (4.7%).
  • Experts caution the trend may not last because higher labor-force non‑participation among less-educated young people and rising automation create uncertainty about how durable these employment patterns will be and how they will affect recent college graduates’ careers.