Overview
- Gross, in an interview published Monday by Live Science, said humanity faces about a 2% yearly chance of nuclear war, which he framed as an expected timeframe of roughly 35 years.
- He called the figure a crude, non-rigorous estimate based on a 1-in-50 annual chance, explaining that this does not mean war is certain but signals higher risk than many assume.
- He cited eroding arms-control norms, a major war in Europe, recent strikes on Iran, close calls between India and Pakistan, and the complexity of nine nuclear-armed states as drivers of danger.
- He warned that growing automation and possible AI control in weapons and command systems could speed decisions beyond human checks and raise the odds of mistakes.
- He urged countries to restart talks and rebuild treaties, a plea landing as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock sits at 85 seconds to midnight.