Overview
- NOAA’s latest outlook raises the chance that El Niño will form by mid‑2026 and says roughly one in three model runs could produce an exceptionally strong 'Super Niño' later in the year.
- The agency projects a below‑average Atlantic hurricane season with eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes while forecasting much higher activity in the central and eastern Pacific.
- Scientists caution confidence is limited because ocean warming must trigger a matching atmospheric response, a process that experts say should become clearer in June.
- Mexico and parts of the Americas face mixed risks from the event: northern and central regions are more likely to see drought and water stress while Pacific coasts could get heavier storms, coastal flooding and stronger hurricanes.
- Economists warn the climate impacts could raise food prices and inflation in Mexico by roughly up to half a percentage point in 2026 through crop losses, disrupted fisheries and higher costs for fruits and vegetables.