Overview
- NOAA’s March 16 update reports La Niña is weakening, eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures have been rising since January, and there is roughly a 50–62% chance El Niño develops between June and August with persistence through late 2026.
- Multiple climate-model ensembles, including analyses cited by Severe Weather Europe and researcher Zeke Hausfather, indicate an elevated probability that the event could become unusually strong by late 2026, though forecasts still carry notable uncertainty.
- Projected impacts include heavier rains and flood risk in parts of South America and the Horn of Africa, alongside heightened drought and wildfire danger in Australia and Southeast Asia.
- In Europe, experts expect a comparatively indirect signal, with a higher risk of summer heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean and modest shifts in autumn temperatures, while Germany’s direct weather effects are limited.
- Past episodes have strained supplies of sugar, coffee and cocoa and worsened food insecurity and displacement in vulnerable regions, prompting humanitarian groups and national services to urge preparedness.