Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is developing faster than expected with roughly two‑in‑three odds of reaching strong or very strong strength and a 96% chance of lasting into the 2026–27 winter.
- A large pool of warm water beneath the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is rising toward the surface, which forecasters say will fuel further strengthening.
- Probabilities for a very strong “Super El Niño” later this year have climbed to about one in three, though scientists stress peak intensity remains uncertain due to the spring predictability barrier.
- Mexico’s weather service projects 18 to 21 named storms in the eastern Pacific in 2026 with several likely to become major hurricanes, and civil protection authorities are stepping up preparedness as the season opens.
- Experts expect a busier Pacific and a near‑average Atlantic because El Niño increases wind shear over the Atlantic, and they warn a strong event could push global temperatures toward new highs while revealing gaps in Pacific monitoring that hamper early warnings.