Overview
- NOAA’s latest diagnostic says ENSO remains neutral through April–June, with El Niño favored to emerge in May–July and persist through late 2026.
- The agency reports five straight months of warming in the equatorial Pacific subsurface, along with wind shifts that typically precede a warm phase.
- Forecast centers including Columbia University’s IRI and the WMO now put odds above 50%, though they caution that spring limits forecast skill.
- NOAA says strength is uncertain, with about a one-in-four chance of a very strong event, and scientists note “Súper Niño” is an informal label.
- For producers in Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires, a wetter pattern can lift yields but also trigger flooding, waterlogging and harvest delays given saturated soils.