Overview
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said on July 9 that there is a very high chance El Niño will be strong to very strong this fall and winter, assigning a 97 percent probability of a strong or very strong event and an 81 percent chance it will be very strong.
- Independent multi‑model analyses led by Zeke Hausfather show unusually tight agreement and a median peak that could exceed past records, with one synthesis projecting a Niño 3.4 sea‑surface‑temperature anomaly near 3.6°C if models hold.
- Forecasters say a strong El Niño typically shifts the jet stream and storm tracks, favoring a wetter winter for the southern United States and an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season while increasing drought risk in parts of South Asia and Australia.
- Humanitarian groups and food security analysts warn the event could trigger severe floods, disease and harvest shortfalls in vulnerable countries in East Africa and South and South‑West Asia, and they are urging early funding for preparedness.
- Beyond immediate weather shifts, scientists note high baseline ocean temperatures from human‑caused warming raise the odds of record global heat and marine heat waves, but model spreads and regional variability mean local impacts are not guaranteed.