Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Sept. 10 there is a greater than 90% chance the event will be classed as ‘very strong’ during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter and a 75% chance it will exceed post‑1950 records this October–December.
- Large ocean and subsurface heat in the central and eastern tropical Pacific has already boosted eastern and central Pacific hurricane activity, producing an above‑average number of named storms and several hurricanes with impacts in Hawaii and higher surf along Southern California.
- Forecasters report the Atlantic basin has been unusually quiet at the climatological peak of the season, with no hurricanes so far and a likely new satellite‑era record for the latest first hurricane because El Niño‑driven upper‑level wind shear has been suppressing development.
- Early humanitarian and market effects are being reported, including drought and crop losses across Central America’s Dry Corridor, rising staple prices, and water stress in regional systems, prompting national services and aid groups to issue seasonal outlooks and preparedness guidance.
- Scientists and agencies warn the event will probably raise short‑term global temperatures and change seasonal rainfall patterns worldwide, increasing the odds of drought in southern Africa, a wetter late season for parts of the U.S. and UK, and elevated coastal risks where local marine heat waves or record warm Gulf waters could fuel rapid storm intensification.