Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updated its outlook on Thursday to give more than a 90% chance that El Niño will rank as “very strong” in Northern Hemisphere fall and winter and a 69% chance it will exceed the 1950–present record.
- Observed Pacific heat has surged well below and at the surface, with some sea-surface anomalies over 2°C, Niño 1+2 near 2.9°C in July, and subsurface water as much as about 10°C above normal, signals forecasters say point to a deep, persistent event.
- Forecasters warn the event will raise the odds of typical El Niño patterns—wetter winters across the southern U.S. and parts of California, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, stronger eastern Pacific storms, and drought in parts of Asia and Australasia—while stressing local outcomes remain uncertain.
- Humanitarian and economic risks are already being flagged: the World Food Programme projects as many as roughly 49 million more people could face acute food insecurity by the end of next year and governments, ports, and emergency managers are moving to preparedness measures.
- Scientists note this El Niño is occurring on top of an unusually warm global baseline, which makes record-breaking global temperatures likely in 2027 and complicates the size and distribution of impacts compared with past strong events.