Overview
- U.S. forecasters updated their outlook on Sept. 10 saying there is more than a 90% chance El Niño will be very strong this fall and winter and a 75% chance it reaches or exceeds the strongest events since 1950.
- Ocean measurements show near‑record sea‑surface anomalies approaching about 2.5–3.0°C above normal and exceptional subsurface heat that can sustain surface warming into winter.
- The strong Pacific warming has produced a hyperactive Eastern and Central Pacific season with many named storms while the tropical Atlantic is unusually quiet and has produced no hurricanes so far this year.
- Forecasters say intense upper‑level wind shear and dry air linked to El Niño, plus Saharan dust, have suppressed Atlantic development but record‑warm Gulf and Florida coastal waters leave a nonzero risk of a late‑season Gulf or Florida storm.
- Scientists and aid agencies warn the event raises odds of drought, crop and water stress in regions such as Central America and Southern Africa, while coastal erosion, higher sea levels and shifts in U.S. winter precipitation are likely secondary impacts to watch.