Overview
- NOAA issued a forecast on July 9 giving an 81% probability that El Niño will reach 'super' strength (≥2°C) during October–December 2026 and said the event could be among the largest since systematic records began around 1950.
- Observations from multiple monitoring agencies show unusually warm subsurface water across the central equatorial Pacific, with temperatures up to about 6°C above normal near 100 meters, which raises the odds that warm water will shift east and push surface temperatures higher off Peru.
- Scientists warn this El Niño will add to an already elevated global temperature baseline and could drive stronger and longer heat extremes worldwide, including unusual summer heat risks for Japan despite the country's usual cool-El Niño pattern.
- Economic analyses project clear risks to food and energy: a Japan Research Institute simulation estimates roughly a 13% year‑on‑year rise in global food prices to 2027 from a super El Niño and warns the rise could reach 20–30% if oil prices stay high.
- Spring onset makes prolonged impacts more likely because such events often last about a year; anticipated effects include lower crop yields, reduced hydropower generation in China and Southeast Asia that can strain supply chains, and higher costs for households and businesses.