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17h ago

NOAA Says 81% Chance El Niño Will Be Very Strong and Likely to Last Into 2027

Forecasters warn the large pool of surface and subsurface Pacific heat could shift seasonal weather patterns and raise the odds of new global temperature records.

Climate forecast model projections and the warming Pacific Ocean are giving forecasters high confidence that El Niño will persist through early 2027.
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A damaged pier is seen in Capitola, California, U.S., January 15, 2023. REUTERS/David Swanson/File Photo
FILE - A visitor to the Guam tent uses a fan to cool down while attending the Great American State Fair on the National Mall, July 1, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard, File)

Overview

  • The Climate Prediction Center’s monthly update on Thursday, July 9, raised the probability that El Niño will reach the agency’s top category to 81% for October–December and gave a 97% chance the event will persist through early spring 2027.
  • NOAA analyses show unusually large warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with the Niño‑3.4 index near +1.2°C and eastern Niño areas up to about +2.7°C, plus deep subsurface warmth that can fuel further surface heating.
  • A very strong El Niño typically shifts weather so the southern U.S. has a wetter winter, the northern U.S. and Canada are warmer, Atlantic hurricane activity is suppressed by stronger upper‑level winds, and eastern Pacific storm activity increases.
  • Forecasters stress that stronger odds do not guarantee local outcomes, note model spread, and urge governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate‑sensitive sectors to use the months before autumn to plan and prepare.
  • Scientists warn this El Niño is developing on top of long‑term ocean warming from human‑caused climate change, which raises the likelihood of new global heat records and could amplify impacts on agriculture, water supplies, fisheries, and disaster response.