Overview
- NOAA's July 9 bulletin reported that El Niño is now established with rising sea‑surface and subsurface temperatures and clearer ocean–atmosphere coupling.
- The agency placed an 81% probability that the event will reach the 'very strong' RONI category in October–December 2026 and a 97% chance it will persist into March–June 2027.
- Observed ocean measurements in the bulletin showed Niño‑3.4 at about +1.2°C, Niño‑1+2 near +2.7°C, Niño‑4 at +0.5°C, and subsurface heat driven eastward by a Kelvin wave.
- NOAA and Brazilian agencies warn impacts will vary by region, with higher flood risk and heavier rains expected in Brazil's South and hotter, drier conditions likely in parts of the North and Northeast.
- Only five El Niño events since 1950 have reached the 'very strong' threshold, and when strong El Niños coincide with human‑driven warming they have tended to push global temperature records higher and amplify extreme weather risks.