Overview
- Official forecasts assign greater than 90% odds that the current El Niño will be classified as “very strong,” with NOAA placing substantial odds that it could be the strongest in its post-1950 record.
- Multiple observations and model analyses show exceptional warming in the Niño 3.4 region and an unusually large subsurface heat reservoir that can continue to drive surface warming and further intensification.
- Seasonal outlooks have shifted: U.S. forecasters now raise probabilities of above-normal winter precipitation for coastal California and wetter conditions across much of the southern U.S., while northern states lean warmer and drier.
- Early impacts linked to the event are already visible, including increased Pacific tropical-storm activity, marine heat waves, higher local sea levels off California that raise coastal flooding risk during peak tides, and drought and fires in parts of Southeast Asia.
- Strong El Niño events change weather patterns worldwide by moving moisture and the jet stream, which can cause floods in some places and drought in others, disrupt agriculture and water supplies, and temporarily boost global temperatures by roughly 0.1–0.3°C, so governments and aid agencies are urging early planning.