Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said in a July 9 update there is an 81% chance El Niño will be classified as “very strong” for October–December and a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027.
- Observed ocean heat is unusually large with about +1.2°C in the central equatorial Pacific and eastern anomalies up to +2.7°C, plus a warm subsurface reservoir that reaches roughly 1,000 feet and can sustain surface warming.
- Forecasters have moved the expected peak earlier, many models now project large Niño anomalies, and agencies including the WMO and national services are revising seasonal outlooks and preparedness plans.
- A very strong El Niño raises the odds of a warmer global year, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane formation while boosting eastern and central Pacific tropical cyclone risk, and shifts rainfall patterns that can mean wetter Southern U.S. winters and weaker monsoons in parts of India.
- Strong El Niño events tilt the odds but do not guarantee local outcomes so governments, aid groups and farmers are urged to use forecasts for flexible planning while monitoring evolving regional signals.