Overview
- On August 6, NOAA revised its 2026 outlook to a 75% chance the season will finish below normal and now projects 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes.
- The season has produced two named storms so far, Arthur and Bertha, and no hurricanes have been recorded through the latest update.
- Forecasters link the downward revision to a strengthening El Niño, which raises upper‑level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and tends to suppress storm formation while increasing Eastern Pacific activity.
- News outlets that cover Walt Disney World and cruises warn that a quieter season does not eliminate risk because heavy inland rainfall or a single tropical system can force temporary park closures, altered attractions, flight disruptions, or changed cruise itineraries.
- NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham urged preparation for inland rain and flooding during the August–October peak, and travelers are advised to monitor forecasts, keep plans flexible, and pack rain gear.