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yesterday

NOAA Puts El Niño on Watch With 61% Odds for May–July, Flags 25% ‘Very Strong’ Risk

Spring forecast skill is low, so scientists are watching for stronger westerly winds to lock in the pattern.

ATLANTIC OCEAN - SEPTEMBER 1: In this NOAA GOES-East satellite handout image, Hurricane Dorian, now a Cat. 5 storm, tracks towards the Florida coast taken at 13:20Z September 1, 2019 in the Atlantic Ocean. A hurricane warning is in effect for much of the northwestern Bahamas as it gets hit with 175 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center Dorian is predicted to hit the U.S. as a Category 4 storm. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
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IN SPACE - SEPTEMBER 12: In this satellite image provided by the National Aeronatics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA), Hurricane Florence churns through the Atlantic Ocean toward the U.S. East Coast on September 12, 2018. Florence slowed its approach to the U.S. today and was expected to turn south, stalling along the North Carolina and South Carolina coast and bringing with it torrential rain, high winds and a dangerous storm surge tomorrow through Saturday. The image was captured by ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst, currently living and working onboard the International Space Station. (Photo by ESA/NASA via Getty Images)

Overview

  • The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, which issued an El Niño Watch on Thursday, now pegs the odds of onset at 61% between May and July with persistence through at least the end of 2026.
  • Forecasters put the chance of a very strong event near 25%, but they stress large uncertainty during spring.
  • Ocean readings show strong subsurface heat and an east‑moving Kelvin wave driven by bursts of westerly winds, raising the odds of El Niño.
  • If it takes hold, El Niño often reduces Atlantic hurricanes and increases Pacific activity, and it can weaken the South Asian monsoon.
  • NOAA plans a May 14 update as scientists look for tighter ocean–atmosphere coupling to pin down timing and strength.