Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center estimates a roughly 75% chance that ENSO returns to neutral conditions during January–March 2026, citing recent model runs and subsurface warmth.
- The National Weather Service reports central and eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are still below average, consistent with ongoing La Niña.
- Officials say La Niña’s influence could linger into the early Northern Hemisphere spring even if the ocean reaches neutrality, with winter weather effects still possible in the meantime.
- Typical La Niña patterns favor a drier southern tier and wetter Pacific Northwest and northern Plains, and experts note California’s impacts may not fully materialize until January through March despite early-season humidity.
- Forecasters say it is too soon to confirm an El Niño in 2026, note increased uncertainty due to the spring predictability barrier, and plan their next diagnostic update for February 12.