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5h ago

NOAA Puts 61% Odds on El Niño Developing by Summer 2026

The outlook cites subsurface Pacific warming alongside westerly wind anomalies as key signals.

ATLANTIC OCEAN - SEPTEMBER 1: In this NOAA GOES-East satellite handout image, Hurricane Dorian, now a Cat. 5 storm, tracks towards the Florida coast taken at 13:20Z September 1, 2019 in the Atlantic Ocean. A hurricane warning is in effect for much of the northwestern Bahamas as it gets hit with 175 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center Dorian is predicted to hit the U.S. as a Category 4 storm. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
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IN SPACE - SEPTEMBER 12: In this satellite image provided by the National Aeronatics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA), Hurricane Florence churns through the Atlantic Ocean toward the U.S. East Coast on September 12, 2018. Florence slowed its approach to the U.S. today and was expected to turn south, stalling along the North Carolina and South Carolina coast and bringing with it torrential rain, high winds and a dangerous storm surge tomorrow through Saturday. The image was captured by ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst, currently living and working onboard the International Space Station. (Photo by ESA/NASA via Getty Images)

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a Thursday update, said La Niña has ended and set a 61% chance that El Niño will form in May–July and persist through late 2026.
  • Forecasters assigned a one‑in‑four chance of a very strong event, with strength hinging on continued westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific this summer.
  • Ocean readings show a large Kelvin wave and strong subsurface heat in the eastern Pacific, conditions that can push warm water east and amplify El Niño.
  • Possible effects include a weaker Indian summer monsoon with crop risks, fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more in the eastern and central Pacific, and shifts in UK and California weather patterns.
  • Confidence remains limited by the spring predictability barrier and model spread, with stronger signals in some European guidance and the next CPC update due May 14.