Overview
- Space weather forecasts from NOAA show Kp index values near 4 for late July nights and a 25%–30% chance of a G1 geomagnetic storm that could push aurora visibility into Alaska and parts of northern U.S. states.
- Solar eruptions tracked this week include CMEs on July 26–27 and an additional CME on July 30, and their timing and magnetic orientation will decide how strong any display becomes.
- Forbes and NOAA forecasts issued July 30–31 differ slightly in emphasis with one product stressing a modest G1–G2 threat for Aug. 1–2 and other products calling the weekend risk low, reflecting probabilistic model updates.
- Seeing the lights will be limited by short summer nights, bright moonlight during the current full moon, and local cloud cover so many displays may be faint or visible first to cameras.
- NOAA advises viewers to watch real‑time SWPC maps, look north during true darkness (roughly 10 p.m.–2 a.m. local), seek dark high horizons, and expect only intermittent, localized sightings unless the solar field turns strongly southward.