Overview
- NOAA’s 2026 seasonal outlook projects 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes and assigns a 55 percent chance of a below‑normal season.
- Forecasters point to a developing El Niño as the main driver because it tends to increase upper‑level wind shear and stronger trade winds that inhibit storm formation across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf.
- Regional signals complicate the basin‑scale forecast because Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean sea‑surface temperatures are unusually warm, which can locally support rapid storm development near the coast.
- Short‑range guidance and experimental tools, including AI model ensembles, have flagged possible early disturbances and the NHC has given an Eastern Pacific cluster about a 20 percent seven‑day development chance, so forecasters urge vigilance.
- Colorado State University’s forecast aligns with NOAA on below‑average activity, but experts stress that a single storm can cause major damage and communities should complete preparedness plans and kits now.