Overview
- In late May NOAA projected 8–14 named storms in the Atlantic for 2026 with 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes, classifying the season as below normal.
- The agency links the reduced Atlantic outlook to a likely El Niño that it estimates has an 82% chance of forming by July and could reach 96% by winter.
- NOAA warned the eastern Pacific may be more active than usual, raising risk for Mexico, Baja California, the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii.
- Researchers say very warm Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean sea‑surface temperatures could counter some El Niño effects, so isolated rapid intensification or damaging landfalls remain possible.
- Forecasters note near‑term severe storms and flood risks across the U.S. South and Plains and will issue a formal seasonal reassessment in early August to update risks and guidance.