Overview
- NOAA released its official outlook Thursday, May 21, 2026, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes with a 55% chance the season will be below normal.
- The agency and its Climate Prediction Center say El Niño is very likely to form this summer and has a strong chance of reaching moderate-to-strong strength, a pattern that tends to boost upper-level westerly winds and shear that suppress Atlantic storms.
- Forecasters note competing factors that add uncertainty, including warmer-than-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and weaker trade winds that can favor storm growth despite El Niño's suppressing effects.
- NOAA is deploying new tools this season — small uncrewed aircraft, uncrewed surface vehicles, gliders, AI-enhanced versions of the GFS and a Google DeepMind partnership model, plus high-resolution flood inundation maps and updated NHC graphics — to improve intensity, track and local impact forecasts.
- Officials stressed the outlook is a basin-wide estimate not a landfall forecast and warned that a single storm can cause severe damage, with NOAA set to update the seasonal outlook in early August before the historical peak months.