Overview
- NOAA updated its August outlook on Thursday to 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes and raised the chance of a below‑normal Atlantic season to 75 percent.
- Forecasters say El Niño is the main driver by increasing upper‑level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, a change that hinders storm formation and intensification.
- Colorado State University and other forecast teams have repeatedly pared earlier spring forecasts as El Niño strengthened, lowering expected storm counts and U.S. landfall odds.
- Two Gulf‑formed tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, already produced heavy rain and localized damage this season, illustrating that fewer storms does not remove the risk of impactful landfalls.
- The same El Niño that suppresses Atlantic activity is fueling above‑average Eastern Pacific activity and an elevated hurricane threat near Hawaii, so officials urge residents to keep hurricane plans current.