Overview
- NOAA issued a watch for minor to moderate geomagnetic storms, with a Kp near 4 expected as a coronal mass ejection may graze Earth alongside fast solar wind.
- Recent solar activity includes an M3.9 flare from sunspot AR4403 linked to the CME, with NOAA later reporting an X1.4 flare that launched a partial-halo CME.
- Forecasters expect the best views at high latitudes, with a chance of sightings in up to 10 northern U.S. states from Washington and Montana to Michigan and Maine.
- A bright waxing gibbous moon could wash out faint displays, so darker, cloud-free sites with a clear northern horizon will help viewers.
- For the best odds, watch NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast and live solar wind data, and look for a sustained southward Bz that lets more energy enter Earth’s magnetosphere.