Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says La Niña is breaking down, with ENSO‑neutral conditions likely within weeks and a 62% chance El Niño develops between June and August 2026.
- Forecast strength remains uncertain during the spring predictability barrier, with current probabilistic guidance placing roughly a one‑in‑three chance of a strong event by October–December.
- Some models lean toward a moderate to strong event, though agencies stress that confidence will improve over the next few months as ocean–atmosphere coupling becomes clearer.
- An El Niño this year would typically increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which can suppress hurricane formation and intensification, though warm Atlantic waters could offset some of that effect depending on timing.
- Meteorological Service Singapore flags possible local effects from July, with El Niño most likely to affect Singapore’s June–October rainfall and heighten regional drought, fire and haze risks in Southeast Asia.