Particle.news
Download on the App Store
9 ARTICLES
·
4h ago

NOAA Issues El Niño Watch, Puts 62% Odds on Summer 2026 Onset

Rising subsurface Pacific heat plus recent wind shifts signal a possible transition with confidence limited this spring.

Image
Sea-surface temperature departures from normal in March 1983 during the powerful 1982-83 El Niño show a band of unusually warm water across the eastern tropical Pacific, a hallmark of El Niño events.
Sea-surface temperature departures from normal in March 1998 during the powerful 1997-98 El Niño show a band of unusually warm water across the eastern tropical Pacific, a hallmark of El Niño events.

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shifted to an El Niño Watch and estimates a 62% chance of El Niño developing during June–August, with neutral conditions likely first in the spring.
  • A large warm pool beneath the tropical Pacific and recent westerly wind bursts suggest Kelvin waves could bring rapid surface warming that favors El Niño formation.
  • Model guidance diverges on strength and timing, with official outlooks noting about a one‑in‑three chance of a strong event by late 2026 as groups like IRI prepare updated summaries.
  • Singapore’s meteorological service says local impacts could begin from July, when El Niño typically reduces June–October rainfall and increases heat and haze risks in Southeast Asia.
  • A developing El Niño would tend to increase Atlantic wind shear and reduce hurricane activity depending on timing and intensity, while a stronger event could tilt the southern U.S. toward a wetter, cooler 2026–27 winter.