Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center places a 62% chance on El Niño developing in June–August 2026 and says it would likely persist through year’s end, with roughly a one‑in‑three chance of being strong in October–December.
- ECMWF ensemble guidance cited by forecasters indicates far higher probabilities, including about a 98% chance of at least a moderate event by August, 80% for strong, and 22% for a “super” El Niño.
- La Niña is expected to fade to neutral within the next month, with most El Niño impacts typically emerging after a short lag and becoming most consistent in late 2026 into winter 2026–27.
- Experts say an El Niño would tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and boost the eastern Pacific, though unusually warm Atlantic waters could offset some suppression.
- Scientists note global temperatures would likely rise if El Niño forms, with 2027 viewed as a leading candidate for a record year, and warn India faces heightened risks of heat and a weaker monsoon even as factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole could modify outcomes.