Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center updated its outlook on Thursday saying there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño for fall and winter 2026–27 and a 69% chance it will exceed previous events dating back to 1950.
- Forecasters and climate scientists say the event will add to long‑term human‑driven warming, making record global temperatures very likely and increasing the chance that 2027 will be the hottest year on record.
- Early impacts are already visible in the tropical Pacific where drought, fish kills and shortened school hours have been reported in Papua New Guinea and meteorological droughts were declared in parts of the Southwest Pacific.
- Operational responses have accelerated: the Panama Canal Authority has tightened vessel draft limits to conserve freshwater, the World Food Programme warns nearly 49 million more people could face acute food insecurity, and governments are mobilizing emergency finance and relief.
- Regional effects will vary as El Niño shifts weather patterns — wetter conditions that can flood southern South America and parts of the U.S. coast, drier and hotter conditions that raise drought and fire risk in northern South America, Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, and a likely suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased upper‑level wind shear.