Overview
- National forecast centers report a rapidly strengthening El Niño with high probabilities that it will reach the 'very strong' category and persist through winter into spring.
- Global sea-surface and subsurface temperatures are at record or near-record levels, which forecasters say increases the chance of new temperature records and stronger weather impacts this season.
- Scientists say the pattern typically shifts the winter storm track into the southern United States, increasing the risk of wetter, stormier winters that can bring flash floods, landslides and coastal erosion in places such as Southern California.
- Forecasters warn the energized subtropical jet will likely disrupt travel across the southern and eastern U.S. from late summer through early spring and could alter tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins.
- Officials stress uncertainties remain and urge governments, emergency managers and the public to prepare now for water management, flood response and travel contingencies while using past very-strong events like 1997–98 as a planning reference.