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NOAA Forecasts Likely G2 Storms That Could Push Aurora Visibility Farther South

Incoming coronal mass ejections and a high‑speed coronal‑hole stream are expected to drive minor geomagnetic storms on Aug. 28–29 that could expand the auroral oval if the interplanetary magnetic field turns south.

Overview

  • NOAA updated its forecast on Friday to say G2 (minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on Aug. 28–29 with Kp near 5.67, upgrading earlier Kp=5 guidance.
  • If conditions reach G1 the aurora should be visible from dark sites in northern‑tier states near Canada and a brief rise to G2 could push faint displays into as many as about 22 states.
  • Visibility will hinge on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) because a sustained southward Bz lets charged solar particles enter Earth’s magnetosphere and brighten the lights.
  • Local factors including cloud cover, light pollution and the waning full moon after the Aug. 27–28 partial lunar eclipse can hide faint aurora even when global conditions are favorable.
  • Observers should watch real‑time NOAA updates or aurora apps, head to high dark locations between roughly 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., and use wide apertures, wide‑angle lenses and tripods or phone night modes for best chance of photos.