Overview
- The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released a seasonal outlook that favors above-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperatures across Arizona for the 2026 monsoon.
- A very dry winter left soils depleted across the state, which will boost surface heating and can trigger an earlier and stronger convective response once monsoon flow arrives.
- Forecasters cite a greater than 90% chance of El Niño developing and an elevated Eastern Pacific hurricane risk, which could carry tropical moisture into Arizona late in the season and produce concentrated heavy rain events.
- Local forecasts warn a strong ridge of high pressure will raise daytime highs to 110°F or higher this coming weekend, heightening near-term heat dangers even before monsoon storms begin on June 15.
- Longer-term trends show a shrinking monsoon rainfall normal in Phoenix (2.43 inches for 1991–2020) while past events, such as remnants of Hurricane Norbert in 2014, demonstrate how tropical systems can still cause extreme single-day flooding; residents are urged to follow heat and storm safety guidance like 'Turn Around, Don't Drown' and 'When thunder roars, go indoors.'