Overview
- NOAA predicts likely G1–G2 geomagnetic storming with a Kp index around 5–6 for July 2–4 tied to the full-halo CME that followed the June 30 X-class flare.
- The forecast maps show the best chances for visible aurora along the U.S.–Canada border states, across most of Canada and widely in Alaska, with peak viewing roughly between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time.
- Whether a bright display appears depends on real-time solar-wind conditions, especially a sustained southward Bz in the interplanetary magnetic field, so forecasters urge checking NOAA’s 30-minute maps and dedicated aurora apps for updates.
- Long daylight after the solstice and moonlight from the waning 'Strawberry Moon' may make faint aurora harder to see, and cameras often record colors before the eye perceives them.
- The June 30 X-class flare already caused shortwave radio blackouts when its X-rays reached Earth, illustrating that strong solar events can affect communications even as overall solar activity trends down from the 2024 peak.