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NOAA Forecasts El Niño Year as Tropical Pacific Warms Rapidly

Rapid Pacific warming raises seasonal risks with forecast strength still uncertain.

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WA is staring down a hotter, drier back half of the year as a fast-forming El Nino begins to flex its muscles in the Pacific Ocean.
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A farmer removes dried plants from his parched paddy field on the outskirts of Ahmedabad. India is battling an intense heatwave and now there is fear that El Niño will affect the monsoon. File photo/Reuters

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for an El Niño year, with some experts cautioning the event could reach very strong or even “super” levels.
  • In recent weeks the Niño3.4 index swung from −0.27°C to +0.23°C, and forecasters report a large pool of subsurface heat exceeding 6°C that could fuel further warming.
  • Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has not declared El Niño but says indicators are turning that way, which often means drier, hotter winter and spring conditions and higher fire danger.
  • The CPC highlighted an area off southern Mexico for possible tropical development in mid‑May, and El Niño typically boosts Eastern Pacific hurricane activity while tending to mute the Atlantic.
  • India’s monsoon outlook remains mixed, as records show only seven of 16 El Niño years since 1950 brought below‑normal rain and other factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole can offset El Niño’s drying effect.