Overview
- NOAA on June 1 issued a seasonal outlook calling for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes in the Atlantic, a below‑normal forecast also reflected in CSU projections.
- Forecasters identify a strengthening El Niño, large Saharan dust plumes, and cooler main‑development‑region sea surface temperatures as the key factors increasing wind shear and stabilizing the Atlantic atmosphere.
- The National Hurricane Center expects no Atlantic tropical development in the first week of June because of those hostile conditions, even as the Gulf of Mexico remains a local area to watch because of unusually warm water.
- The NHC is monitoring Eastern Pacific disturbances with one system carrying about an 80–90% seven‑day chance of development, but models currently keep that system largely offshore.
- Officials urge early preparedness — including buying supplies and noting the 30‑day waiting period for new flood policies — because a single storm can still cause severe coastal and inland impacts.