Overview
- NOAA on May 21 issued its official outlook calling for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes and gave a 55% chance the season will be below normal with 70% confidence in those ranges.
- Forecasters identify a developing El Niño as the main reason for the below‑normal forecast because El Niño raises upper‑level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which typically disrupts storm formation.
- NOAA warned that warmer‑than‑normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures and weaker trade winds could counter El Niño’s suppressing effect because warm water gives storms energy and lower winds let them organize more easily.
- Officials stressed that the seasonal totals do not predict landfalls and urged communities, especially along the Gulf Coast and Texas, to prepare now since a single rapidly intensifying storm can cause major harm.
- For 2026 NOAA is rolling out new tools designed to improve warnings, including expanded NHC cones with inland watches and warnings, experimental high‑resolution seasonal models, sUAS data in forecast models, and updated flood‑mapping products, with the outlook to be refreshed in early August.