Overview
- NOAA’s seasonal outlook, released for the June 1 start of the season, projects 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes with a 55% chance of below‑normal activity.
- Forecasters say a developing El Niño will boost upper‑level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which typically tears apart growing storms and lowers basin‑wide hurricane formation.
- Satellite data show widespread Saharan dust, dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures in the Main Development Region that are keeping the Atlantic quiet and limiting near‑term tropical development.
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances in the Eastern Pacific with roughly 80% and 20% seven‑day development odds, reflecting the expected shift of activity toward the Pacific.
- Federal, state and local officials urge residents to prepare now by building emergency kits, reviewing flood insurance (which often has a 30‑day waiting period) and updating evacuation plans because one storm can still cause major damage.