Overview
- NOAA on Monday said it expects 8 to 14 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic season, making a below‑average outlook more likely than a near‑normal or above‑normal season.
- Forecasters identify a developing El Niño as the main driver because it increases upper‑level wind shear that tears apart budding storms and reduces the odds of widespread Atlantic cyclogenesis.
- Early‑season hostile conditions including large Saharan dust plumes and cooler main development region sea surface temperatures are suppressing tropical waves and lowering the chance of June development in the Atlantic.
- The National Hurricane Center expects no Atlantic tropical cyclone formation in the first week of June while monitoring two Eastern Pacific disturbances, one of which has a high chance of development.
- Officials from NOAA, NWS and emergency managers stress that seasonal totals do not predict landfalls, urge immediate preparedness because 'it only takes one' storm, and note practical steps such as the 30‑day wait for new flood insurance.