Overview
- The U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday raised the odds that El Niño will be “very strong” to more than 90% and put the chance it will exceed the modern record for the October–December index at about 69%.
- Observations show unusually large heat in the tropical Pacific with sea-surface anomalies in parts of the eastern equatorial region above 2°C and extreme subsurface warmth that model guidance says will fuel a persistent event through late 2026 and into early 2027.
- El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO cycle tracked by indices such as Niño 3.4 and the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, which measure multi-month Pacific temperature departures that steer seasonal weather odds rather than guarantee specific local outcomes.
- Governments and industries are already preparing because early impacts have appeared—fisheries declines, altered river flows and tighter Panama Canal draft limits—and forecasts point to wetter winters for the southern U.S. and parts of South America plus higher drought risk in places like northern Brazil, India and Australia.
- Forecasters and aid agencies warn the event will likely add to human-caused warming, raising the odds of record global temperatures and acute food insecurity for tens of millions, with the scale of economic and humanitarian harm dependent on how long and where the strongest weather shifts fall.