Overview
- NOAA projects a Kp index near 5–6 on Thursday evening, easing to 4–5 overnight into Friday, which can allow sightings on the northern horizon under clear skies.
- Forecasters expect most CME material to skirt Earth to the north and east around Feb. 5, though trajectory and strength remain under review.
- AR4366 has produced a burst of activity including at least 18 M-class flares and three X-class flares in a day, among them an X8.3, the strongest reported this year.
- Visibility prospects are medium to high in northern Germany, limited and mainly photographic in central regions, and very unlikely in the south unless Kp reaches around 7.
- Observers are advised to check aurora apps from about 21:00 and look for a southward (negative) Bz; CMEs typically arrive in 2–3 days and can affect satellites, GPS, radio and power grids.