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6h ago

NOAA Ends La Niña, Issues El Niño Watch With 61% Odds and 25% 'Very Strong' Risk

The eventual strength will hinge on sustained westerly winds this summer.

ATLANTIC OCEAN - SEPTEMBER 1: In this NOAA GOES-East satellite handout image, Hurricane Dorian, now a Cat. 5 storm, tracks towards the Florida coast taken at 13:20Z September 1, 2019 in the Atlantic Ocean. A hurricane warning is in effect for much of the northwestern Bahamas as it gets hit with 175 mph winds. According to the National Hurricane Center Dorian is predicted to hit the U.S. as a Category 4 storm. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
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IN SPACE - SEPTEMBER 12: In this satellite image provided by the National Aeronatics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA), Hurricane Florence churns through the Atlantic Ocean toward the U.S. East Coast on September 12, 2018. Florence slowed its approach to the U.S. today and was expected to turn south, stalling along the North Carolina and South Carolina coast and bringing with it torrential rain, high winds and a dangerous storm surge tomorrow through Saturday. The image was captured by ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst, currently living and working onboard the International Space Station. (Photo by ESA/NASA via Getty Images)

Overview

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which updated its outlook Thursday, said La Niña has ended and gave a 61% chance that El Niño begins between May and July with a 25% chance it becomes very strong.
  • European model guidance and several scientists report unusually warm subsurface waters and recent westerly wind bursts that could power an exceptionally strong event, though federal forecasters avoid the term “super.”
  • Forecast skill is limited in spring, and experts say a very strong outcome depends on continued westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific through summer.
  • El Niño usually reduces Atlantic hurricane activity and increases storms in the eastern Pacific, which can change coastal risk planning for residents, emergency managers, and insurers.
  • A strong event would raise drought risk for India’s monsoon and could tilt winter storm tracks toward wetter conditions in Southern California and parts of Europe and the UK, with global heat likely to spike into 2027 if it persists.