Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center officially declared an El Niño on Thursday, noting sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have met thresholds for development.
- The CPC assigns a 63% chance the event will reach “very strong” levels in the November–January period, with many model ensembles in May–June trending toward larger Pacific warming.
- Observed ocean and atmospheric signs include well-above-normal sea-surface temperatures and wind anomalies—low-level westerlies and upper-level easterlies—that support continued El Niño growth.
- Forecasters have already folded ENSO into seasonal outlooks: they expect a below-average Atlantic hurricane season, an active eastern Pacific basin, drier conditions for parts of Florida from August to October, and wetter, cooler winters across the Southeast.
- Experts caution peak intensity and exact regional impacts remain uncertain, with a typical El Niño lasting nine to 12 months and this episode likely to persist into early 2027, so seasonal forecasts will be updated as conditions evolve.