Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center announced that El Niño conditions have developed, issuing an advisory on June 11, 2026, after ocean and atmospheric indicators moved into a coupled El Niño state.
- NOAA estimates a 63% probability that the event will reach “very strong” intensity during November 2026–January 2027, and several model ensembles project unusually large sea-surface temperature anomalies later this year.
- Forecasters say El Niño typically shifts large-scale weather patterns, which raises the odds of a wetter, stormier winter across the southern United States, lowers Atlantic hurricane activity, and increases Pacific cyclone chances.
- Scientists warn of damaging marine impacts because El Niño tends to spawn prolonged marine heat waves that stress fisheries and corals, and NOAA models already show multiple ocean heat events developing through 2026.
- Officials stress significant uncertainty about peak strength, timing and local effects, note that some agencies use stricter criteria before declaring El Niño, and urge communities and sectors to prepare as forecasts are updated.