Overview
- This month U.S. forecasters and other meteorological agencies confirmed El Niño has formed and many operational models now assign high odds that it will become very strong or 'super' later in 2026.
- United Nations food agencies and the World Food Programme launched a $202 million anticipatory appeal to protect vulnerable people with early interventions such as cash transfers, early warning and targeted supplies.
- Private modelling reported to the press estimates as much as $342 billion in global agricultural losses and warns that roughly 500 million smallholder farmers could face critical risk if a very strong event occurs.
- El Niño works by shifting warm surface water and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific, which typically brings drought to parts of South and Southeast Asia and southern Africa and heavier rains to other regions including parts of the United States and coastal South America.
- Scientists say a warmer climate will likely amplify extremes but that peak strength and precise local impacts remain uncertain, so experts are urging safety nets, crop insurance, drought‑resistant seeds and supply‑chain contingency planning now.