Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center declared El Niño active on June 11, 2026, following a Japan Meteorological Agency announcement the day before and citing coupled ocean and atmosphere signs.
- Forecasters report above‑average sea surface temperatures, low‑level westerly wind anomalies, upper‑level easterly anomalies, increased convection and unusually high ocean heat content that together confirm a coupled El Niño state.
- Model ensembles project strengthening through late 2026 with a 63% chance that the event will reach “very strong” intensity for November 2026–January 2027, a level that would place it among the largest events since 1950.
- Agencies have already adjusted seasonal outlooks: Atlantic hurricane forecasts were revised lower because stronger upper‑level winds tend to create vertical wind shear that inhibits storm formation while eastern Pacific activity and U.S. southern and California winter storms are more likely.
- Experts stress uncertainty about exact timing and local impacts and warn this El Niño will probably push global average temperatures higher, raising the odds of heat records and intensifying climate-related risks for vulnerable communities.